Some time ago I saw this post
Flash Used on 5% of All Websites, Down From 28.5% Seven Years Ago
and wait a minute ... what did I just read?
Flash is only 5% ?!? WTF?
and whaaaaaat it was only 28% 7 years ago ????
OK ... there is a problem somewhere
so what do we see in this article?
oh yeah sure "Google has seen a similar decline"
hahaha but off course
so the article shows that
from this source W3Techs
and here a copy of what you can see on that source
and so based on all that the article mentioned above starts with
Only 4.9 percent of today's websites utilize Flash code, a number that has plummeted from a 28.5 percent market share recorded at the start of 2011.
The number, courtesy of web technology survey site W3Techs, confirms Flash's decline, and a reason why Adobe has decided to retire the technology at the end of 2020.
A decline from 28.5 percent to 4.9 percent doesn't look that bad, but we're talking about all Internet sites, not just a small portion of Top 10,000 or Top 1 Million sites.
Taking into account the sheer number of abandoned sites on today's Internet, the decline is quite considerable, and W3Tech's findings confirm similar statistics put out by a Google security engineer in February.
butt off course, it's not at all the browsers like Google Chrome aggressively blocking the Flash Player plugin (because HTML5 is ready now), nooooes it is much simpler than that: Flash is simply declining all by itself ...
yeah right ... are those guys really think we are that stupid, seriously?
so the article continue by using Google move as a justification
Google has seen a similar decline
Back then, speaking at a security conference in San Diego, Parisa Tabriz, Director of Engineering at Google, said that the percentage of daily Chrome users who've loaded at least one page containing Flash content per day had gone down from around 80 percent in 2014 to under 8 percent in early 2018.
Tabriz, one of the people in charge of Chrome's security, blamed the downfall on the rise of web-based technologies like HTML5 and CSS3, but also on configuration changes made by Chrome and other browsers, which disabled Flash rendering and moved to an "HTML5-by-default" experience.
It was in fact between 2013 and 2014, when Flash lost the biggest chunk of its market share (from 21.1 percent to 12.1 percent), when HTML5 and CSS3 were rolling out.
With Flash usage numbers going down, by the time the end of 2020 comes around and Adobe stops all Flash support, the technology would be an afterthought for most users, except the few sysadmin souls trapped into supporting the aging tech on desperately outdated corporate networks and apps.
On the client side, browser makers are expected to remove Flash support from their products altogether by the end of 2020 —Flash's end-of-life date.
I mean that's a really convenient conclusion from those guys
I talked about it here Google happily claim they killed Flash
so convenient indeed ...
one time they try to sell you the killing of Flash because HTML5 is ready
another time they try to sell you the killing of Flash because of security
and now they try to sell you the killing of Flash because of declining stats
So yeah let's talk about those Flash usage statistics, because I don't remember that kind of numbers
and I mean it, 7 years ago Flash only 29%, who the fuck are we kidding here?
Ok, so today if you try to go there
you get redirected here
and when you click on Statistics you see that
since 2012 or something Adobe stopped showingFlash Players statistics
before and thanks to web archives, it was like that
here the hole page from 2 November 2011
Let's focus on the last stats from June 2011
On W3Tech side we have Flash at 28,5% on 1st January 2011
and on Millward Brown side we have Flash at ~99% on June 2011
How do we explain that difference? well... the nuance is in the details
W3Tech is analysing the Usage of Flash for websites
Millward Brown is analysing a market panel of users with the Flash plug-in technologies they have installed on their computer
In both case we can talk about "Flash usage", but it is not the same thing that get analysed.
In fact, it is a pretty good case that illustrate how you can manipulate people opinion with stats.
For example I could say that 90% of websites use a robots.txt
for the sake of illustration
oh they don't want their statistics archived ?
and I could also say that 0% of web users see robots.txt
even if 100% of web users do have the technology to see it
That's why I call that bullshit, show a nice graph of percentages in decline
and you can say that Flash is in decline, it does serve an agenda
While researching the subject I also found these:
Adobe Flash Player Version Penetration from 2007 (saved PDF)
Adobe - Flash Player Version Penetration.pdf (14.6 KB)
an answer from Adobe about their stats
Adobe Forums - Can't find current player stats, etc.
Adobe Marketing used to fund a profoundly expensive program where we paid a third-party company to collect independently verifiable usage and penetration data on Flash Player. As you can tell, we stopped doing that around 2011 as Adobe's marketing focus changed. Our general thinking is that metrics that we publish should be independently inspectable and verifiable, and we're not positioned to publish the source data from which we derive our internal metrics. I did find a couple commercially available market reports for sale, but I can't speak to their accuracy or data collection methodologies.
That said in the case of Google and other browsers, even if users do want to see Flash content,
as they gonna block completely the plugin, even if this one is installed on the system,
well ... it's certainly gonna be 0% users who gonna be able to see Flash content in those kind of browsers.
Imagine, if another browser were to allow Flash plugin, what would happen?